Month: March 2020

Sun River Intelligence (002097) Incident Review: Good Performance, State-Owned Large Shareholders Date Good for Long-Term

Sun River Intelligence (002097) Incident Review: Good Performance, State-Owned Large Shareholders Date Good for Long-Term

Event: The company released the 2019 first quarter performance forecast, and it is expected to achieve net profit attributable to its mother of 13,298.

380,000 yuan-16622.

980,000 yuan, an annual increase of 20% -50%.

Key points of investment: The performance in 2018 is good, and the piling business has obvious advantages.

The company achieved revenue of 57 in 2018.

500 million (the company’s revenue target for 2018 is 51.

800 million), an annual increase of 45.

73%; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 4.

30,000 yuan, an increase of 165 in ten years.


The primary significance of the reported increase in profits is that the construction machinery market has stable demand and business income has increased; avmax has completed the fourth equity settlement during the year, and the merger has increased.

The revenue in 2018 increased slightly, mainly due to the recovery of the engineering industry and the company’s differentiated competitive strategy. Since 2018, the company has concentrated on superior resources to expand and strengthen the piling machinery business and maintained better head competition in this fieldAdvantage.

The start of 2019 is good and the outlook for the construction machinery business is maintained.

Affected by “infrastructure construction shortcomings” and relatively loose monetary policy, the domestic excavator industry sold a total of 74,779 units in the first quarter of 2019, an increase of 24.

At the same time, the demand growth rate of the pile machinery industry is still considerable.

Boosted by this, the company’s first quarter 2019 performance growth expectations are good.

We believe that in 2019, the company will continue to consolidate the competitiveness of the pile driving business and strengthen the investment of the excavator business, which will become a strong support point for the construction of 2019 performance.

Aviation equipment and special equipment business remains a bright spot.

In aviation equipment, since the acquisition and consolidation of AVmax began in October 2016, the company’s shareholding in Avmax has now reached 86.


AVmax is a high-quality target in the global aircraft aftermarket, with enhanced profitability. Since its acquisition, its performance has grown steadily, and it achieved revenue of 10 in 2017.

80,000 yuan, net profit 2.

20,000 yuan, expected to maintain growth in 2018.

According to the acquisition agreement, AVmax has 13 remaining.

34% of the fair delivery is expected to be completed in the first half of 2019, when Avmax will become a wholly-owned subsidiary.

In terms of special equipment, the core product waterway amphibious multifunctional engineering vehicle has realized batch order delivery, which reflects good military product research and development and industrialization capabilities.

The company plans to date a state-owned large shareholder, and the company’s sustainable development is guaranteed.

On January 26, 2019, Mr. He Qinghua, the controlling shareholder, and Guangzhou Wanli signed the “Share Transfer Agreement” and “Voting Right Entrustment Agreement”: He Qinghua, which Sun Qinghua holds.

196上海夜网论坛6% was assigned and transferred to Guangzhou Wanli at a conversion price of 8 yuan / share. At the same time, He Qinghua intends to entrust shareholder rights such as voting rights and conversion rights related to the 8% of Sunhe Intelligent held by him to Guangzhou Wanli.

At the same time, Guangzhou Wanli intends to transfer 8 of the total shares of Shanhe Smart held by other shareholders.

1579%; Guangzhou Hengyi, a affiliate of Guangzhou Wanli, intends to transfer 6 of the total number of shares in Sun River Intelligent held by other shareholders.


After the share transfer, the voting right entrustment and the transfer of other parties’ shares are completed, Guangzhou Wanli will become the company’s largest shareholder with a single voting right, that is, the company’s controlling shareholder, and the Guangzhou Municipal People’s Government will become the actual controller of Shanhe Smart.

We believe that the expansion of the expectations of state-owned shareholders will facilitate the company’s expansion of business in Guangdong; more importantly, it is expected to solve the company’s sustainable development problems and benefit the long-term.

Maintain BUY rating.

It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent from 2018 to 2020 will be 4 respectively.

32, 5.

06, 5.57 trillion, corresponding to EPS are 0.

40, 0.

47 and 0.

51 yuan / share, according to the latest closing price of the corresponding PE is 18, 15 and 14 times, maintain the buy rating.

Risk reminder: the risk of rapid growth of construction machinery industry; AVmax’s performance growth is less than expected, and the acquisition progress is less than expected

Zhujiang Beer (002461) 2018 Annual Report Comment: Product Structure Improved, Regional Advantages Extend and Strengthen

Zhujiang Beer (002461) 2018 Annual Report Comment: Product Structure Improved, Regional Advantages Extend and Strengthen

I. Event Overview The company released its annual performance report on March 25, and the company achieved operating income of 40 in 2018.

390 thousand yuan, ten years +7.

33%; Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies3.

66 trillion, ten years +97.

68%; basic EPS is 0.

17 yuan; expected ROE is 4.

55%, an increase of 1 over the same period last year.

96 units.

Second, analyze and judge that the revenue has grown steadily, the internal gross profit margin has increased slightly, and the expenses have been better controlled.

7 trillion, ten years +7.

3% / + 98%; gross margin up to 40.

55%, an increase of 1 over the same period last year.

4 per share; expense expense expense 22.

75%, a decrease of 1 from the same period last year.

55 units.

In Q4, the company achieved net revenue / attributable net profit in a single quarter.


500 million, ten years +9.

3% / + 253%, the substantial increase in net profit attributable to mothers in the fourth quarter was related to the number of bases in the same period last year.

Q4 cost cost 28.

2%, up 7 from the first three quarters.

2 numbers, the increase in marketing expenses is the main reason for the increase in expense ratio.

The product structure has improved, and Guangdong’s market advantage is generally more stable. In 2018, the company sold 124 beer replacements, each time +2.

5%, of which Pearl River Pure Health / Pearl River 0 degrees sales were 43/60, respectively, changed to +6.

7% / + 1.

1%, cans sold 34.

9 inches for the whole year + 8%.

The company expanded its scale with the Pearl River at 0 degrees; with Pearl River Pure Health as its profit growth point, and expanded high-end products such as snow castles, crafts, and puree, and continuously improved its product structure, the 2018 ton wine revenue per ton of wine gross profit increased 4.

8% / 8.


In 2018, the company’s market share in Guangdong reached 32%, of which the PRD / Foshan / Dongguan market shares were 37% / 54% / 44%, respectively, an increase of 2 compared with the same period last year.



6 units.

Cultural, business and tourism industry linkage, the development of the headquarters can be expected. At present, the company has completed the construction of the Nansha Visit Corridor project, linked the Pearl River-InBev International Beer Museum, the Pearl River Papa Beer Cultural and Creative District and the Nansha production base to create a boutique cultural and business tourism in Guangzhou.

After the headquarters area is converted into commercial land in the future, the company will explore a new model for the development of the headquarters. It is expected that it will be developed in conjunction with the existing cultural, business and tourism projects, which will help promote the company’s brand building and improve performance.

Third, profit forecast and investment recommendations It is estimated that the company’s operating income in 19-21 will be 43/47/50 billion US dollars, an annual increase of 7% / + 8% / + 8%; the company’s net profit attributable to the mother in 19-21 is 4.


1 megabyte, +16% / + 10% / + 9% for one year, and the EPS corresponding to the latest equity is 0.



23 yuan, the current corresponding PE is 33/30/27 times.

At present, the 杭州桑拿 overall evaluation of the beer sector is 45 times. The company’s estimated level exceeds the industry average. Considering the company’s product structure, there is room for further improvement. The development of the headquarters and the linkage of cultural, business, and tourism will have a positive effect on performance and the company has good growth.

Give “Recommended” rating.

4. Risk warning: high-end products are blocked, gross profit margin is significantly reduced, financial conditions are deteriorated, food safety issues, etc.

Sante Ropeway (002159): The turning point of the performance has been reached, and the company’s operation has entered an ascending channel

Sante Ropeway (002159): The turning point of the performance has been reached, and the company’s operation has entered an ascending channel

A brief review of performance for 18 years The company achieved operating income6.

48 ppm / + 20.

2%, net profit attributable to mother 1.

3.5 billion / + 20.

8%, deducting non-attributed net profit of 5.01 million yuan, -0.

300 million, turning losses into profits.

Operating analysis Long-term revenue of mature projects of the company increased by 30%.

1%. After 杭州桑拿 the third quarter, the endogenous performance turned losses into profits. The company transferred 1 to Xianfengpingbaying project.

32 billion investment income: The company’s six mature projects received 6 million tourists / + 20.

7%, to achieve operating income of 5.

7 ppm / + 30.

1%, accounting for 88% of the company’s revenue and net profit performance of 2.

5 ppm / + 43%, of which the profit growth of Fanjingshan and Huashan ropeway projects with higher performance weights was + 63% / +70.

2%, Hainan, Qiandao Lake and other projects have grown slowly. The company’s cost control has achieved a net profit increase of about 6%.

The reception capacity of the cultivated project has been steadily improved, with 45 visitor visits and revenue.

740,000 passengers / + 17%, 0.

4.6 billion / + 29.

5%, expected to 苏州夜网论坛 expand further.

After the company revitalizes its existing assets and streamlines the replenishment of its endogenous operating capabilities, it will gradually release the growth flexibility of mature projects and nurtured projects.

The company’s budget situation has improved, and the “do something and do nothing” business strategy improves the company’s prospective operating efficiency, and the management expense ratio increases and improves: From the perspective of financial expenses and compensation, the company’s financial expense ratio is stable for 18 yearsAt 13.

At 6% level, no further improvement occurred, mainly due to the company’s streamlining of alternative projects and the receipt of 800 million yuan in assets securitization in December 2018.

Short-term borrowings remain stable (4.

100 million), and long-term borrowings have fallen by 2 compared to 17 years.

99 yuan.

The company’s current monetary capital is 6.

46 ppm, non-current debt due within one year is about 1.

970,000 yuan, sufficient monetary funds reserves.

The management expense ratio continued to improve, which was 19 in 18 years.

2% /-4.

2pct, the sales expense ratio increased slightly due to the project’s promotion and marketing process (5.

8% / + 7pct).

The company’s main business has strong growth. Major shareholders have repeatedly increased their holdings and fully participated in the fixed increase. This shows significant confidence: the company’s mature prospects have good operating conditions, contribute to the company’s performance, and have great flexibility in growth and growth periods.High growth at low bases.

Shareholders have repeatedly increased their shareholdings in the company, with a shareholding ratio of 25.

65%, higher margin of safety.

At the same time, the large shareholders fully subscribed for fixed-increasing projects to repay the bank to supplement the supplementary cash flow, reducing financial costs. As the growth and maturity at the same time, the reduction in financial costs exceeded the company’s performance increase.

Profit adjustment and investment recommendations 19E-21E performance is 0.

710,000 yuan, -31% / 39% / 33% growth rate, EPS is 0.



23 yuan, corresponding to the corresponding PE is 35/25/19 times, maintain the buy rating.

Risks remind that the progress of the company’s capital operation is affected by the policies and time of the CSRC; the restructuring of the tourism-heavy asset cultivation period; the simultaneous cultivation of multiple projects, excessive capital expenditures and heavy financial pressure.

Hexing Packaging (002228): Entering 10 Billion Revenue Scale Overseas Layout Has Go Ahead

Hexing Packaging (002228): Entering 10 Billion Revenue Scale Overseas Layout Has Go Ahead

A brief 杭州夜网论坛 evaluation of performance In 2018, the company achieved revenue / net profit attributable to its mother 121.

66 ppm / 2.

3.3 billion, an annual increase of 39.

08% / 64.

49%, achieving full diluted EPS0.

20 yuan, in line with expectations.

The 2018 distribution plan is to pay 0 cash dividends for every 10 shares.

50 yuan (including tax).

The operating analysis company became the first company in the industry to enter 10 billion revenue.

Last year, the company completed the acquisition and consolidation of Hezhong Chuangya. Driven by internal and external dual-track drive, the company became the first company in the paper packaging industry to enter 10 billion revenue.

In terms of profitability, as the price of packaging paper first rose and then fell in 2018, the company’s gross profit margin was relatively under pressure in the first and second quarters, and it showed a quarter-by-quarter improvement in the second half of the year, with a gross margin of 13 in Q4.

53%, an increase of 0 from the same period in 2017.


We expect that the price of inner packaging paper will continue to be under pressure this year, and the company’s gross profit margin will continue to increase.

The PSCP and IPS businesses are becoming more and more mature, becoming the new engine for the company’s revenue growth.

Driven by the company’s “ten billion manufacturing, one hundred billion service” strategy, the operation of the two major projects of IPS and PSCP is gradually mature.

At present, the PSCP platform has expanded to 1,300 partner customers, and the IPS project has continuously expanded customer contracts with Jabil and Goodbaby, occupying more than 10 packaging production lines.

In 2018, the company’s PSCP business realized revenue28.

3.9 billion, an increase of 149 in ten years.


With the continuous expansion of the business volume of the PSCP platform, it will be able to collaborate with the IPS project in the future to comprehensively enhance the company’s packaging services and supply capabilities.

The issuance of convertible bonds strengthened the foundation, and the acquisition of Hezhong Chuangya increased the national supply capacity.

The company announced that it plans to issue convertible bonds to raise 5.

9.5 billion yuan for environmentally friendly packaging and Qingdao Hexing carton production projects.

We believe that this convertible bond raising project plans to further strengthen the company’s main business development foundation and continue to expand its leading position within the industry.

In 2018, the company strengthened its product supply capabilities in the Yangtze River Delta, the western region, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and other regions through the acquisition of the Hezhong Chuangya project, and reset the production capacity gaps in Liaoshen, Hohhot and other regions.

At the same time, it has also formed an advance layout for emerging markets in Southeast Asia.

After the completion of the acquisition, the company’s customer structure will be enriched, comprehensively improving customer service capabilities and comprehensive competitiveness.

Profit forecast and investment recommendations We are optimistic about the company’s internal and external extensions, and create an overall packaging service provider strategy of “ten billion manufacturing, one hundred billion services”. We predict that the company’s EPS forecast will be zero after 2019-2021 is fully diluted.



53 yuan (three years CAGR49.

8%), corresponding to 19/13/10 times the corresponding PE, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk factors Macroeconomic risks; risks of rising raw material prices; new projects are not advancing faster than expected risks.

Bank of Ningbo (002142) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review-Strong Revenue Growth and Profits Continue to be Excellent

Bank of Ningbo (002142) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review-Strong Revenue Growth and Profits Continue to be Excellent

Excellent management capabilities and regional advantages are the company’s core competitiveness. Flexible asset allocation and excellent pricing power drive high performance. The company is a scarce growth bank. The current changes correspond to January 2019.


Maintain the “overweight” rating.

Bank of Ningbo’s net profit attributable to mothers increased in the first three quarters of 20.

04% (+19 in the first half of the decade).

74%), reducing the income and continuing to increase the basis of high growth. The reason for correcting the growth rate of net income is that the high base reason has improved, but non-interest income has grown well. Provisions must be made and are still active. Asset depreciation losses in the first three quarters of each yearValue added 5.

92% (+0 in the first half of the year.


The asset expansion in the third quarter is slightly predicted, and the interest rate spread is still slightly up.

The first three quarters of interest rate net income increased by 5 per year.

2% (+11 in the first half of the year.

3%), the highest growth rate was mainly due to a higher base (net interest margin increased significantly in Q3 2018), while the volume and price in the third quarter of this year showed stable performance.

In terms of quantity, Q3’s total assets were +2 from the previous month.

84% (Q1 / Q2 +3.

99% / 3.

83%), the growth rate is in line with statutory conventions in the short term, supplementary assets are mainly allocated in loans (balanced issuance of retail to public) and financial investments (mainly FVPL subjects), while interbank assets and financial investments (other fair income)(Measured and its changes included in other comprehensive income).

82%, compared with the first half of the year.

81% is still a slight increase, which is said to be mainly due to the continuous optimization of asset structure (the proportion of loans continued to increase to 28).

91%, +1.


The growth rate of non-interest income has rebounded significantly. Profits and losses from changes in handling fees and fair value are mainly contributed by exchange gains and losses.

In the first three quarters, non-interest income increased by 48 in ten years.

1%, a growth rate (+34.

1%) a significant rebound, mainly due to: 1) net fee income maintained a good growth trend, an increase of 32 in ten years.

6%, which is also higher than the growth rate in the first half of the year (+24.

2%), it is speculated that it may be related to credit card and agency sales business; 2) Fair value gains and losses and exchange losses and gains performed well in the third quarter, related to 合肥夜网 changes in the fair value of derivative financial assets and exchange rate changes; in the implementation of IFRS9The volatility of category subjects becomes even greater.

Asset quality continued to be excellent, and provision coverage continued to rise.

The generation and disposal of non-performing assets increased, the non-performing assets of the company remained stable, the non-performing assets of the company remained stable, and the non-performing ratio remained at zero for four consecutive quarters.

78% in the third quarter, the balance of non-performing loans increased by 2.

18 billion (Q1 / Q2 increased by 1.

1.9 billion / 2.

1.3 billion), if the write-off is added back and the Q3 bad generation rate is about 0.

85% (about 0 in the first half).

45%), combined with the attention rate fell 6BPs to 0.

57% (Q1 / Q2 + 9BPs / -2BPs), paying attention to the decrease in loan surplus by 1.

Looking at 1.2 billion, it may indicate that the company still maintains active risk exposure and disposal in Q3 (Q3 write-off7.

(700 million, write-off of 700 million in the first half of the year), asset quality continued to be consolidated.

Provisions were made more aggressively, with Q3 credit costs reaching 1.56% (1st half of the year.

21%), thanks to this provision coverage ratio further rose to 525.

49% (+3 MoM).


Risk factors: substantial macroeconomic expansion; asset quality worse than expected.

Investment advice: The company is a scarce growth bank. Excellent management capabilities and regional advantages are the company’s core competitiveness. Flexible negative capital allocation and excellent pricing power drive high performance.

Taking into account the company’s stable volume and price, non-interest improvement, slightly raised the forecast for the growth of net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders in 2019/20 to 20.

46% / 18.

63% (previous forecast 18).

28% / 17.

44%), taking into account the expansion of equity after the conversion of convertible bonds into equity, the EPS forecast for 2019/20 is also raised to 2 accordingly.


78 yuan (previous forecast 2).


73 yuan), currently estimated 1.

99xPB (2019), maintaining the “overweight” rating.

Collix (603808): Performance in line with expectations Multi-brand continued growth

Collix (603808): Performance in line with expectations Multi-brand continued growth

The event company released its 2018 annual report and achieved operating income of 24.

3.6 billion, an increase of 18 over the same period last year.

66%; Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

650,000 yuan, an increase of 20 over the same period last year.


The EPS is 1.

08 yuan.

Dividends will be distributed for every 10 shares5.

25 yuan (including tax).

Key points of investment: Revenue continues to grow rapidly and the number of channels grows net: The company owns six fashion brands ELLASSAY, Laurel, Ed Hardy, IRO, VIVIENNE TAM, and JeanPaulKnott, covering different 重庆耍耍网 market needs, and establishing channels, brand promotion, and supply chain systemsThe synergy effect is obvious in other aspects.

As of the end of 2018, the number of company stores was 592 (a net increase of 59), of which ELLASSAY was 312 (a net decrease of 10); EdHardy series brands were 181 (a net increase of 33) and realized revenue4.

9.8 billion (+14.


Laurèl achieved 37 revenues (a net increase of 7) and achieved revenue1.

110,000 yuan, (+14.


IRO has 49 and VIVIENNETAM has 13.

Looking at the same store growth, the average monthly store price of the ELLASSAY brand increased by 8.

28%; among them, the monthly sales of directly-operated stores each increase by 10.


In the same period, the sales revenue of the same store and single store increased by 6 each year.


Steady growth in online channels and higher gross margins.

Online sales in 20181.

2 billion, an annual increase of 10.

8%, revenue accounted for 4.


Gross profit margin 53.

34%, an increase of 3.

17 averages.

Baiqiu Network continued to maintain a rapid growth rate, and established overseas subsidiaries to explore the Southeast Asian market.

Baiqiu Network achieved a net profit of 6,005.

450,000 yuan, an increase of 19 every year.


In 2018, Baiqiu E-commerce established overseas subsidiary ARRIVA, focusing on providing e-commerce operation services for international brands in Southeast Asia.

In the future, an overall e-commerce service system will be formed throughout China, the Philippines, Malaysia, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, Thailand, Vietnam and other countries and regions.

Baiqiu E-commerce is experienced in the operation of mid-to-high-end fashion brands and operates 40 international fashion brands. It is expected that it will continue to grow rapidly in the future.
The gross profit margin decreased slightly, the expense ratio increased slightly during the period, and the inventory turnover ratio decreased.
In 2018, the company’s sales gross margin decreased slightly by zero.

63pct to 68.

21%, the expense ratio increased by 1.

05pct to 43.

09%, mainly due to the increase in sales expense ratio by 1.

10pct to 29.

98% (employee salary increase, advertising expenses increase, mall expenses increase, etc.); management expense ratio decreased by 1.

26 points to 13.


The company’s inventory was 23 compared with the end of the previous period.

99% to 5.

2.5 billion US dollars, mainly due to sales growth and marketing network growth to prepare for demand.

Investment suggestion: Grace is one of the leading women’s mid-to-high-end women’s wear in China. According to statistics from the China Business Information Center, in 2018, the ELLASSAY brand won the first place in China’s high-end women’s wear market.

At the same time, the company’s multi-brand matrix was formed, and endogenous extensions promoted revenue growth.

We predict that the company’s annual revenue for 2019-2021 will be 1.

31, 1.

57 and 1.

86 yuan.

Return on net assets were 16.

0%, 17.

0% and 17.

6%, currently expected to be about 13 times the corresponding EPS in 2019, maintaining the “Buy-A” recommendation.

Risk warning: the company’s store extension may be less than expected; the industry’s sales growth may change abruptly or the value of the 杭州桑拿网 same store may increase; the synergy between brands may be less than expected.

Kouzijiao (603589) Company dynamic comment: Third-quarter results exceed expectations. Expected adjustment measures are in place.

Kouzijiao (603589) Company dynamic comment: Third-quarter results exceed expectations. Expected adjustment measures are in place.

Matters: The company announced the third quarter report of 2019, and the revenue from 1-3Q19 was 34.

7 trillion, an increase of 8 in ten years.


  Net profit attributable to mother 13.

0 million yuan, an increase of 13 in ten years.

5%, of which 3Q19 achieved revenue of 10.

500 million, a year down 0.

2%, net profit attributable to mothers 4% down 1 billion.

8%, revenue performance were lower than expected.

Investment point of view: The addition of high-end products is mainly dragged down by products with a price of 100 yuan, and products above 200 yuan have grown well.

The company’s premium wine Q3 achieved revenue 9.

900 million, the previous upper limit of 1%, basically five years of high-end wine in the mouth because of consumption upgrades were naturally replaced by six years, and the initial price increase of Xiaochijiao has an impact on sales.Steady growth, new products in the early summer and mid-autumn are still mainly in the group purchase channel, replacing late listing, insufficient packaging material capacity, expanding volume.

Q3 mid-range wine revenue was zero.

200 million, a percentage exceeding ten years, low-grade wine revenue of 0.

200 million, an annual increase of 23%, the base of low- and medium-grade wine is small, which belongs to seasonal changes.

  In the third quarter, the growth in the province was under pressure, and the growth rate outside the province.

The company’s Q3 provincial revenue achieved revenue 8.

3 ‰, the previous highest 3%, mainly due to excessive inventory in several important markets in the province such as Hefei, Anqing, Lu’an since the beginning of the year, overlapping terminal sales pressure dragged down the increase in the province.

Q3 Realized income outside the province 2.

US $ 0 billion, an annual growth rate of 8%, an improvement over the first half of the year. It is believed that the dealers actively distributed the goods in the first half of the year, and the third quarter entered the natural sales phase of destocking, reducing pressure on the end.

  The advance receipts increased sequentially, and the quality of the cash flow statement was good.

The company’s advance payment at the end of the third quarter 5.

7.9 billion, an increase of 0 from the previous month.

600 million, the company is facing moderate pressure on growth.

Sales of goods in the third quarter of 19, labor services received cash of 1.2 billion US dollars, the annual value added 8.

Earnings reform with an increase rate of 5% was due to an increase in advance receipts and a decrease in bills receivable;

1 ‰, an increase of 3 per year.

3%, the first is the increase in sales rebates.

  The increase in gross profit margin supplemented the decrease in net investment income in the third quarter, which resulted in a slight decrease in net profit margin.

The sum of the period expense ratio and the business tax ratio remained basically stable.

The sales expense ratio in the third quarter of 19 was 5.

7%, an annual increase of 0.

2pct, management expense ratio (including R & D expenses) 4.

9%, a year to raise 0.

8pct, finance costs -0.

5%, a decline of 0 per year.

2 points, business tax and surcharge ratio 14.

5%, a decline of 0 per year.7 points.

  Gross profit margin fell in the third quarter of 193.

8 points to 70.

4%, it is expected that the increase in fixed costs such as fixed asset vendors against the background of increased revenue will cause cost increases to stagger. At the same time, the net income from Q3 investment will decrease by 13 million compared with the same period, and the company’s net increase will decrease slightly.

6pct to 38.


Looking forward to the fourth quarter, in terms of products, the company ‘s Koike warehouse price has been adjusted. It is expected that the growth will slowly resume in the future.

Channel feedback In October, it will increase spending on expanding market expenses such as banquet seats and drive terminal sales. It is expected that the sales expense ratio will improve Q3.

  The province has a solid foundation and looks forward to the implementation of improvement measures.

Since the beginning, the company’s response has been exceptionally passive, but the province has a solid foundation and competitive strength. In the face of the pressure on receivables in some markets in the province, it is expected that the company’s adjustment measures will be in place.

In July, the company launched two new products with a price range of 200-400 yuan, which will make it easier to participate in competition in the future.

In the fourth quarter, we plan to increase brand investment. In the future, we will increase the growth of consumers such as banquet seats and refine marketing activities. We will closely track the landing situation and wait for the improvement of the turning point.

  Investment suggestion: Although some markets in the province are in the adjustment period, 杭州桑拿网 the company’s product structure is good, and the trend of consumption upgrade in the province will continue to benefit in the future. It is expected that the company’s revenue will increase 12%, 11%, 12%, and net profit +16 in 19-21%, + 14%, + 18%, EPS are 2 respectively.

95, 3.

38, 3.

98 yuan; corresponding PE is 18/15/13 times, maintaining the “recommended” level.

  Risk warning: Macro fluctuations exceed expectations, food safety issues

New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic: Macroscopic Impact and Asset Allocation of Five Coping Models

New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic: Macroscopic Impact and Asset Allocation of Five Coping Models

For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!

  Shao Yu | New Crown Pneumonia Outbreak: Five Coping Modes, Macro Impacts and Asset Allocation Source: Finance and Economics | Shao Yu’s Outline of Views: The new Crown Pneumonia Virus (COVID-19, WHO) fraud lies in evading detection and being latent,It may happen. Asymptomatic, multiple tests can be locked, and its high infectivity will cause the instant running of medical resources, and cause basic diseases, causing joint damage, so it is more difficult than acute influenza.

It should not be taken lightly, and it is not ruled out that resumption of work and study may be repeated (especially in cases such as gathering closed spaces, cruise prisons, etc.).

  The rest of the world is not necessarily prepared (for example, Southeast Asia), Japan and South Korea may adopt stricter control measures, the global industrial chain will slow down and growth will slow down, but even if it is distributed to other developing economies, it will helplimited.
It is possible that the enthusiasm of stock speculation will continue (this is the largest online office and online game), because there is still a process for temporarily abundant liquidity to enter the entity, and the question is how long.

It may be necessary to wait until early March, January and February to release the data before judging the economic trend.

The short-term policy requirements are simple, and the focus is on whether to restart real estate and iron-based public hedging (with liquidity support). At present it seems necessary.

  The initial impact has four aspects: first, how the urban agglomeration development model addresses imbalances and inadequate supply of public services; second, how much the global supply chain will be impacted, and how to overcome this vulnerability; third, huge flowsDoes sex generate bubble leverage wealth differentiation or can start a new generation of industrial revolution? Fourth, how does the improvement of social governance respond to the improvement of people’s wisdom and the empathy effect of the network.

  The long-term impact has three aspects: first, the game of big powers and the game of power are related to the changing model and foreign; second, is the technological revolution a solution to the crisis or trigger more inequality, control manipulation and physical shock; thirdIn pursuit of the essence of modernity, can we combine traditional civilization with modern system and upgrade it, similar to the integration of traditional Chinese and western medicine.

  From the timeline of the epidemic spread (see Figure 1).

A study published online January 24 by the International Medical Top Lancet (The Lancet) showed that the first confirmed case of new-type coronavirus pneumonia developed on December 1, 2019.

  Figure 1: Timeline of the early spread of new coronary pneumonia virus. Source: Qun Li et al. 2020, the mentality of Chinese people is complicated. At the beginning, they knew nothing about the epidemic and panicked. The development of the epidemic epidemic, and then expressed profoundly to patients.Compassion and concern.

The incident of eight whistlers on December 30 caused widespread discussion of the epidemic.

  The market also fell together through huge emotional fluctuations.

Until January 20 of this year, Academician Zhong Nanshan showed on the TV program that the epidemic situation was human-to-human, and the whole people began to widely realize the consciousness and upgrade the protection.

On January 22, the second-level response in Hubei Province was launched, and most other areas responded to the first-level response.

  At 10 am on January 23, Wuhan “closed the city”, which meant the severity of the epidemic and started to attract global attention.

Due to the attention of public opinion, the rapid dissemination of information, and the strong empathy of the entire society, policy makers responded to the epidemic with a positioning of “common will, a people’s war.”

  The two-week strategy since then has been to temporarily freeze all economic activities, concentrate advantageous medical resources to gather Wuhan and Hubei, and close the virus spreading channels.

  The timeline of this response is significantly faster than SARS (refer to Table 1).

Because viruses are constantly changing, so is research.

Now we are facing the routine of returning to the return process. Whether this will bring about a new round of development of the epidemic, everyone will still have doubts. We also have our own judgment.

Based on the current data and news reports, a summary of the various modes of response to the new coronavirus epidemic.

  Table 1: Propagation parameters of different types of virus annihilation mode: Take Wuhan as an example.

Promote sufficient medical resources to close the city to eliminate the epidemic.

Existing measures quickly found a high point, and then it is expected that the number of infected people will continue to decline slowly, and the number of suspected cases will gradually decline.

  Blocker mode: Rural roads in some areas have cut roads and replaced them physically.

Understandably, local medical resources are not necessarily sufficient.

This is the same reason that the World Health Organization, considering Southeast Asia and other densely populated and insufficient medical resources, defined the emergency as a public health emergency to serve as a warning.

  Defensive warfare mode: Take Beishangguangshen as an example.

Will the peak return (Jin Qilin analyst) affect the development of the epidemic in the region?

Dr. Shao Yu judged that the data in other parts of the country except Wuhan was relatively correct. If the data is not to rise for another two weeks, the good news will be welcome.

Of course, individuals still need to pay attention to personal hygiene and minimize crowded places.

  Open gambling model: Take Singapore as an example.

Singapore’s economy is very extroverted, and the entire country is a window for international exchanges. Therefore, resources are allocated to treatment rather than epidemic prevention.

The success of this model remains to be seen.

  Program management model: Take the United States as an example.

The response was quick to start, and masks were also provided, but there was no travel ban, but eventually found it uncontrollable and left it to its own development.  For the duration of the epidemic, the time fraction of the change may be the end of February. The epidemic in other regions except Hubei will be basically controlled, and the peak of the epidemic in Wuhan may come in mid-March.

Some analysts believe that the second wave of peaks will continue the epidemic 无锡桑拿网 until the second quarter.

If so, the overall response plan and economics will be completely different.

  Analysts who hold this view are a minority, but this does not mean that they can be taken lightly during the epidemic prevention process.

If the epidemic can be controlled in the first quarter, then there is a high probability that a large-scale stimulus policy will not be issued, similar to the fiscal and monetary policy of that level during the 2008 financial crisis.

  The current fiscal policy will be more regional and short-term.

In terms of monetary policy: if the epidemic is prolonged, the interest rate and interest rates may be lowered.

At present, the policy is more about short-term investment without releasing reserves.

Of course, the short-term liquidity magnitude is not small.

In terms of interest 杭州桑拿 rate policy: Supported by the best interest rate, there is no large-scale interest rate reduction for medical and disaster-stricken enterprises.

However, it is expected that interest rates will be cut in the next period, and the loan interest rate and LPR in the next period may be adjusted.

Initially, the rate of interest rate reduction is not small, it may be 20-30bp.

  In terms of local policies: The current policy of temporarily deferred payment of taxes and fees may continue into the second quarter.

The loss of the Spring Festival Golden Week, not every industry can quickly rebound.

China’s economy will be impacted in the first quarter. Consumers will bear the brunt of this, especially in offline crowded industries.

In the first quarter, it will be damaged by 2-3 digits, and the GDP will be pulled to 4 or even lowered.

There will also be an impact in the second quarter, which will probably decrease by 0.


Five segments, the economic situation rebounded in the third and fourth quarters.

Relatively speaking, the benchmark is at 5

About 7%, now it looks like it may be at 5.


  In terms of investment: changes in the secondary market opened on February 3.

In the first week of the stock market, global risk aversion was strong. Only the gold dollar rose, and others were plummeting, especially China-related stocks, oil, etc. (see Figure 2).

This week has fully released the risks.

Due to the adjustment and prediction of the external market, the stock market has continued to grow, and the prospective replacement of capital for entering the north, coupled with abundant liquidity, has stabilized market sentiment.

The industry is clearly differentiated, medical and health, and online education and office are sought after.

  Figure 2: Risk appetite, the source of data on the trend of the US dollar, gold and crude oil; WIND, after the outbreak of Oriental Securities, has the capital market reaction ended?

Investors should be more cautious.

As more liquidity will gradually return to the real economy, capital market attention will decline.

  The summary is as follows: First, the impact of this epidemic on the economy will exceed SARS.

The impact of SARS on the economic development of the year was not large, and the industry as a whole continued to “sing forward”, and the new crown pneumonia epidemic may lead to hindered pace.

  Secondly, from a financial perspective, investors should adjust their asset allocation and allocate assets in cities and regions where public services are more adequate, leading enterprises, large enterprises that can resist risks, and enterprise services that can provide research and support for public servicesGiant.

  Third, regarding bonds, the downward trend in interest rates is unavoidable.

The epidemic situation will lead to obvious risks for small and medium-sized enterprises, and even various auxiliary risk control measures. There will still be various differentiations in bond defaults. Allocation of high-grade bonds or interest rate debt will be a better choice.

  Fourth, if the epidemic is compromised in time (maintained until summer) and there is a certain demand for the allocation of the value-preserving assets, it is recommended to reach 10%.

Regarding value-preserving assets, gold and the US dollar, the current benchmark interest rates are optimistic expectations, but WHO and the United States are still issuing various alerts, and the epidemic may be maintained for some time.

  Important Risk Warning: Wait, if the epidemic is not effectively controlled in other countries and regions around the world (refer to Figure 3), it may cause disruption in the global economy.

  Figure 3: The spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic overseas Source: WIND, Oriental Securities

Intime Resources (000975) Annual Report Commentary Report: Gold Business Increases Performance and Profits Achieve Significant Growth

Intime Resources (000975) Annual Report Commentary Report: Gold Business Increases Performance and Profits Achieve Significant Growth
Event: The company released its 2018 annual report. The company achieved operating income of 48 in 2018.2.6 billion, an increase of 117% in ten years; net profit attributable to mothers6.63 ppm, an increase of 97% per year, corresponding to an EPS of 0.33 yuan, the performance basically in line with market expectations. The company also announced the first quarter of 2019 performance forecast on April 13.The company expects to realize net profit attributable to mothers in the first quarter of 20191.6.5 billion to 1.75 ppm, an increase of 41 in ten years.75% -50.34%. Gold business contributes incremental performance The company’s mergers and acquisitions of gold mines have brought incremental performance to the company, of which Heihe Yintai produced gold3.3 tons, producing 15 tons of silver, achieving a net profit of 4.1.1 billion; Jilin Banmiaozi produces gold 2.3 tons, achieving a net profit of 2.04 billion.The company’s Yulong Mining’s zinc concentrate sales decreased compared to 2017. The company’s sales of zinc concentrates in 2015 were 15,250 tons, a continuous decline of 35.74%, achieving net profit3.80 million, the score dropped by 18% in 2017. The heavy volume of gold mines is expected to drive profitability. The gradual volume of high-grade gold mines will increase the company’s profitability.Heihe Locke and Jilin Banmiaozi Mining have been put into production. Dongan Gold Mine owned by Heihe Locke is currently one of the highest proven gold grades in China, with an average selected grade of 15 in 2018.38g / ton.Jilin Banmiaozi’s average selected grade 3 in 2018.24 grams of xanthones.Qinghai Dachaidan is expected to resume production in the first half of 2019, when the company’s gold output will further increase. The gold price still has growth momentum As of April 15, 2019, the price of Comex gold was $ 1,291 / exchange rate. The price has improved compared to the first quarter, but it still exceeds the average price of 18 years.At the March interest rate meeting, the Fed 北京夜网 adjusted its rate hike plan to 2019 from the previous forecast of two interest rate hikes, confirming the market’s expectation that the Fed will end the rate hike cycle.With the gradual announcement of the Fed’s interest rate hike cycle, the suppression of the gold price’s thorough and thorough interest rate hike cycle has increased. Profit forecast and investment suggestions: Considering that Heihe Locke has been converted to underground mining in 19 years, the output of zinc concentrate in Yulong Mine may be reduced. We set the company’s profit forecast for 2019-2020 to 12.8.8 billion and 15.2.8 billion down to 9.3.6 billion and 10.1.4 billion.The corresponding EPS are 0.47 yuan and 0.51 yuan (previous average 0.65 and 0.77 yuan).Corresponds to the closing price of 10 on April 17.33 yuan, PE is 22 times and 20 times in 2019-2020, we maintain the “overweight” rating. Risk reminder: the risk of falling lead and zinc metal prices, the risk of falling gold prices, and the risk that the company’s resource and technology output will fall short of expectations.

Hesheng Silicon (603260): Long-term performance and high growth cost advantage value prominent

Hesheng Silicon (603260): Long-term performance and high growth cost advantage value prominent

Report Summary: Events: The company released its 2018 annual report, and the company achieved revenue of 110 during the reporting period.

76 ppm, an increase of 59 in ten years.

37%; net profit attributable to mother 28.

05 ppm, an 84-year increase.

92%; net profit after deduction to mother 26.

92 ppm, an 85-year increase.


The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 8 per 10 shares.

2 yuan, at the same time 4南宁桑拿 shares for every 10 shares.

Opinion: Long-term performance with high growth and increase in R & D investment: The company gradually realized organic silicon revenue51.

7 billion, an annual increase of 51.

43%, gross profit margin 49.

87%, an increase of 9 per year.

50pct, outstanding contribution to expected performance.

Industrial silicon segment achieved revenue of 58.

170,000 yuan, an increase of 69 in ten years.

84%, gross margin 33.

01%, a decrease of 4 per year.

36 points.

The company increased R & D investment in downstream special products of organic silicon and R & D expenses2.

US $ 0.5 billion, an increase of 145% previously.

The highest period expense ratio is 9.

85%, a decrease of 1 per year.

3 points.

Driven by rising silicone prices, the company’s overall gross profit margin was 40.

84%, an increase of 2 per year.

12pct, net interest rate is 25.

74%, an increase of 3 per year.

40 marks.

In terms of quarters, the company’s Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 net profit attributable to the parent was 6 in each quarter.




At 5.9 billion U.S. dollars, the price of organic silicon products dropped to a high level after the third quarter, which caused the company’s fourth-quarter profit to shift to a certain extent.

The amount of industrial silicon has increased significantly, and the cost optimization has added highlights: The newly built 40-inch industrial silicon project of the company’s Shanshan Base was completed and put into operation in the first half of 18, and the company’s capacity scale has reached a new level.

The company produces 65 industrial silicon.

95 inches, +58.

2%, 51 sales.£ 49, +57 compared to the same period last year.

5% (for personal use 8.

95 for the first time).

The company’s output accounts for 25% of the domestic market. Under the condition that the industry’s overall capacity utilization rate is only 48% in 2018, the company’s new capacity release can achieve full production and sales, further proving the cost advantage of the company’s integration of coal, electricity and silicon.

The company’s industrial silicon preset average selling price is 1.

130,000 yuan / ton, up 7 in the past.

8%, but subject to rising coal prices and rising costs caused by some external power purchases, profitability has declined.

With the completion of the company’s 2X350MW factory in Shanshan Base, supporting facilities such as graphite electrodes have been completed, and the company’s costs have gradually increased and optimized.

Demand for industrial silicon downstream terminals, organic silicon, and aluminum alloys continues to grow. As the industry leader with significant cost advantages, the company will continue to benefit.

The price of organic silicon has stabilized and rebounded, and the cost advantage has strengthened the company’s competitiveness: In 2018, the price of organic silicon increased significantly. The average market prices of DMCQ1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 were 2 respectively.




200,000 yuan / ton, weaker downstream demand and increased industry inventory, the price of organic silicon rose sharply in the fourth quarter.

The price decline continued until February 1919.

As demand gradually entered the peak season, prices began to stop falling and rebound, and the average price in April increased by about 2,300 yuan / ton on average compared with the first quarter.

We believe that the margin of downstream demand has improved, and the current price level is generally profitable for non-supporting companies. The short-term supply and demand structure is tightening, and prices are expected to rise steadily.

In the long run, the industry will increase its production capacity to the maximum. Silicone monomer is expected to enter a new round of oversupply cycle after 2020. However, in the future, the increase in production capacity will focus on existing leading companies, and the industry concentration will increase.More orderly, the cost advantage of rebuilding the company’s internal upstream facilities will strengthen the company’s competition.

Profit forecast: Adjust the company’s revenue from 2019 to 2020 to 118.

87, 133.

3.1 billion, net profit attributable to mother is 23.

47, 25.

The 69 trillion forecast adds 150 revenue in 2021.

5.1 billion, net profit attributable to mother is 28.

The forecast of 93 trillion corresponds to 3 EPS in 2019-2021.

50, 3.

83, 4.

32 重庆耍耍网trillion, corresponding to PE are 16.

7X, 15.

2X, 13.

5X, optimistic about the company’s high safety pad built by the cost advantages of coal, silicon and silicon integration, maintaining the “buy” level.

Risk warning: product prices fall sharply; downstream demand is less than expected