New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic: Macroscopic Impact and Asset Allocation of Five Coping Models
For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!
Shao Yu | New Crown Pneumonia Outbreak: Five Coping Modes, Macro Impacts and Asset Allocation Source: Finance and Economics | Shao Yu’s Outline of Views: The new Crown Pneumonia Virus (COVID-19, WHO) fraud lies in evading detection and being latent,It may happen. Asymptomatic, multiple tests can be locked, and its high infectivity will cause the instant running of medical resources, and cause basic diseases, causing joint damage, so it is more difficult than acute influenza.
It should not be taken lightly, and it is not ruled out that resumption of work and study may be repeated (especially in cases such as gathering closed spaces, cruise prisons, etc.).
The rest of the world is not necessarily prepared (for example, Southeast Asia), Japan and South Korea may adopt stricter control measures, the global industrial chain will slow down and growth will slow down, but even if it is distributed to other developing economies, it will helplimited.
It is possible that the enthusiasm of stock speculation will continue (this is the largest online office and online game), because there is still a process for temporarily abundant liquidity to enter the entity, and the question is how long.
It may be necessary to wait until early March, January and February to release the data before judging the economic trend.
The short-term policy requirements are simple, and the focus is on whether to restart real estate and iron-based public hedging (with liquidity support). At present it seems necessary.
The initial impact has four aspects: first, how the urban agglomeration development model addresses imbalances and inadequate supply of public services; second, how much the global supply chain will be impacted, and how to overcome this vulnerability; third, huge flowsDoes sex generate bubble leverage wealth differentiation or can start a new generation of industrial revolution? Fourth, how does the improvement of social governance respond to the improvement of people’s wisdom and the empathy effect of the network.
The long-term impact has three aspects: first, the game of big powers and the game of power are related to the changing model and foreign; second, is the technological revolution a solution to the crisis or trigger more inequality, control manipulation and physical shock; thirdIn pursuit of the essence of modernity, can we combine traditional civilization with modern system and upgrade it, similar to the integration of traditional Chinese and western medicine.
From the timeline of the epidemic spread (see Figure 1).
A study published online January 24 by the International Medical Top Lancet (The Lancet) showed that the first confirmed case of new-type coronavirus pneumonia developed on December 1, 2019.
Figure 1: Timeline of the early spread of new coronary pneumonia virus. Source: Qun Li et al. 2020, the mentality of Chinese people is complicated. At the beginning, they knew nothing about the epidemic and panicked. The development of the epidemic epidemic, and then expressed profoundly to patients.Compassion and concern.
The incident of eight whistlers on December 30 caused widespread discussion of the epidemic.
The market also fell together through huge emotional fluctuations.
Until January 20 of this year, Academician Zhong Nanshan showed on the TV program that the epidemic situation was human-to-human, and the whole people began to widely realize the consciousness and upgrade the protection.
On January 22, the second-level response in Hubei Province was launched, and most other areas responded to the first-level response.
At 10 am on January 23, Wuhan “closed the city”, which meant the severity of the epidemic and started to attract global attention.
Due to the attention of public opinion, the rapid dissemination of information, and the strong empathy of the entire society, policy makers responded to the epidemic with a positioning of “common will, a people’s war.”
The two-week strategy since then has been to temporarily freeze all economic activities, concentrate advantageous medical resources to gather Wuhan and Hubei, and close the virus spreading channels.
The timeline of this response is significantly faster than SARS (refer to Table 1).
Because viruses are constantly changing, so is research.
Now we are facing the routine of returning to the return process. Whether this will bring about a new round of development of the epidemic, everyone will still have doubts. We also have our own judgment.
Based on the current data and news reports, a summary of the various modes of response to the new coronavirus epidemic.
Table 1: Propagation parameters of different types of virus annihilation mode: Take Wuhan as an example.
Promote sufficient medical resources to close the city to eliminate the epidemic.
Existing measures quickly found a high point, and then it is expected that the number of infected people will continue to decline slowly, and the number of suspected cases will gradually decline.
Blocker mode: Rural roads in some areas have cut roads and replaced them physically.
Understandably, local medical resources are not necessarily sufficient.
This is the same reason that the World Health Organization, considering Southeast Asia and other densely populated and insufficient medical resources, defined the emergency as a public health emergency to serve as a warning.
Defensive warfare mode: Take Beishangguangshen as an example.
Will the peak return (Jin Qilin analyst) affect the development of the epidemic in the region?
Dr. Shao Yu judged that the data in other parts of the country except Wuhan was relatively correct. If the data is not to rise for another two weeks, the good news will be welcome.
Of course, individuals still need to pay attention to personal hygiene and minimize crowded places.
Open gambling model: Take Singapore as an example.
Singapore’s economy is very extroverted, and the entire country is a window for international exchanges. Therefore, resources are allocated to treatment rather than epidemic prevention.
The success of this model remains to be seen.
Program management model: Take the United States as an example.
The response was quick to start, and masks were also provided, but there was no travel ban, but eventually found it uncontrollable and left it to its own development. For the duration of the epidemic, the time fraction of the change may be the end of February. The epidemic in other regions except Hubei will be basically controlled, and the peak of the epidemic in Wuhan may come in mid-March.
Some analysts believe that the second wave of peaks will continue the epidemic 无锡桑拿网 until the second quarter.
If so, the overall response plan and economics will be completely different.
Analysts who hold this view are a minority, but this does not mean that they can be taken lightly during the epidemic prevention process.
If the epidemic can be controlled in the first quarter, then there is a high probability that a large-scale stimulus policy will not be issued, similar to the fiscal and monetary policy of that level during the 2008 financial crisis.
The current fiscal policy will be more regional and short-term.
In terms of monetary policy: if the epidemic is prolonged, the interest rate and interest rates may be lowered.
At present, the policy is more about short-term investment without releasing reserves.
Of course, the short-term liquidity magnitude is not small.
In terms of interest 杭州桑拿 rate policy: Supported by the best interest rate, there is no large-scale interest rate reduction for medical and disaster-stricken enterprises.
However, it is expected that interest rates will be cut in the next period, and the loan interest rate and LPR in the next period may be adjusted.
Initially, the rate of interest rate reduction is not small, it may be 20-30bp.
In terms of local policies: The current policy of temporarily deferred payment of taxes and fees may continue into the second quarter.
The loss of the Spring Festival Golden Week, not every industry can quickly rebound.
China’s economy will be impacted in the first quarter. Consumers will bear the brunt of this, especially in offline crowded industries.
In the first quarter, it will be damaged by 2-3 digits, and the GDP will be pulled to 4 or even lowered.
There will also be an impact in the second quarter, which will probably decrease by 0.
Five segments, the economic situation rebounded in the third and fourth quarters.
Relatively speaking, the benchmark is at 5
About 7%, now it looks like it may be at 5.
In terms of investment: changes in the secondary market opened on February 3.
In the first week of the stock market, global risk aversion was strong. Only the gold dollar rose, and others were plummeting, especially China-related stocks, oil, etc. (see Figure 2).
This week has fully released the risks.
Due to the adjustment and prediction of the external market, the stock market has continued to grow, and the prospective replacement of capital for entering the north, coupled with abundant liquidity, has stabilized market sentiment.
The industry is clearly differentiated, medical and health, and online education and office are sought after.
Figure 2: Risk appetite, the source of data on the trend of the US dollar, gold and crude oil; WIND, after the outbreak of Oriental Securities, has the capital market reaction ended?
Investors should be more cautious.
As more liquidity will gradually return to the real economy, capital market attention will decline.
The summary is as follows: First, the impact of this epidemic on the economy will exceed SARS.
The impact of SARS on the economic development of the year was not large, and the industry as a whole continued to “sing forward”, and the new crown pneumonia epidemic may lead to hindered pace.
Secondly, from a financial perspective, investors should adjust their asset allocation and allocate assets in cities and regions where public services are more adequate, leading enterprises, large enterprises that can resist risks, and enterprise services that can provide research and support for public servicesGiant.
Third, regarding bonds, the downward trend in interest rates is unavoidable.
The epidemic situation will lead to obvious risks for small and medium-sized enterprises, and even various auxiliary risk control measures. There will still be various differentiations in bond defaults. Allocation of high-grade bonds or interest rate debt will be a better choice.
Fourth, if the epidemic is compromised in time (maintained until summer) and there is a certain demand for the allocation of the value-preserving assets, it is recommended to reach 10%.
Regarding value-preserving assets, gold and the US dollar, the current benchmark interest rates are optimistic expectations, but WHO and the United States are still issuing various alerts, and the epidemic may be maintained for some time.
Important Risk Warning: Wait, if the epidemic is not effectively controlled in other countries and regions around the world (refer to Figure 3), it may cause disruption in the global economy.
Figure 3: The spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic overseas Source: WIND, Oriental Securities